乔布斯在40年前是怎样预测智能手机和未来科技的?这其中甚至可以瞥见iPhone和AI的影子。

我一直是访谈内容的爱好者。有些经典的访谈值得反复阅读，即便经过时间的洗礼也依然价值连城。乔布斯在1985年的这篇采访就是其中之一。

我们用AI还原了这篇采访，本期是上半部分。

全部内容由AIGC内容制作，原文来自真实访谈。

文案 Steve Jobs x Playboy

美术 midjourney

音效 AITalk

剪辑 AITalk

Openning

我们用ai呈现了乔布斯在1985年的这段采访，在采访中，我将扮演当时的记者给出问题，所有的回答来自当时的真实记录，而乔布斯在1985年对个人电脑、智能手机、未来科技等话题给出了自己的判断，我们甚至可以从这些观点中看到他对iphone和人工智能等技术的卓越远见。

Interview

We survived 1984. and computers did not take over the world, though some people might find that hard to believe. If there’s any one individual who can be either blamed or praised for the proliferation of computers, you, the 29-year-old father of the computer revolution, are the prime contender. It has also made you wealthy beyond dreams—your stock was worth almost a half billion dollars at one point, wasn’t it?

我们熬过了1984年，尽管有些人可能难以相信，但计算机并没有接管世界。如果有一个人可以被归咎或赞扬计算机的普及，那就是你，作为计算机革命的29岁父亲，你是最有竞争力的人。这也使你变得富有，你的股票曾经一度价值将近五亿美元，是吗?

I actually lost $250.000.000 in one year when the stock went down.

我实际上在一年内损失了2.5亿美元，当股票下跌的时候。

You can laugh about it?

你可以对此一笑了之吗?

You know, my main reaction to this money thing is that it’s humorous, all the attention to it, because it’s hardly the most insightful or valuable thing that’s happened to me in the past ten years. But it makes me feel old, sometimes, when I speak at a campus and I find that what students are most in awe of is the fact that I’m a millionaire. When I went to school, it was right after the Sixties and before this general wave of practical purposefulness had set in. Now students aren’t even thinking in idealistic terms, or at least nowhere near as much. They certainly are not letting any of the philosophical issues of the day take up too much of their time as they study their business majors. The idealistic wind of the Sixties was still at our backs, though, and most of the people I know who are my age have that ingrained in them forever.

你知道，我认为钱这回事儿，所有对它的关注都有点可笑，因为过去十年来它并非发生在我身上的最有深度或最有价值的事情。但是它令我感到自己老了，有些时候，当我在校园演讲时，我发现学生们最敬畏的是我是个百万富翁这件事。我上学的时候，正是六十年代刚结束而这股务实性风潮泛滥之前。如今的学生们压根不用理想主义方式来思考，或者至少可以说远不及此。他们肯定不会让当代的哲学问题占用他们太多的时间，因为他们要学习自己的商业课程。然而，六十年代的理想主义风潮仍然在我们心中，而且大多数我认识的同龄人心里都永远铭刻着它。

We were going to say guys like you and Steve Wozniak, working out of a garage only ten years ago. Just what is this revolution you two seem to have started?

我们本来要说像你们和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克这样的人，只是十年前还在车库里工作。你们似乎开创的这个革命究竟是什么呢?

We’re living in the wake of the petrochemical revolution of 100 years ago. The petrochemical revolution gave us free energy—free mechanical energy, in this case. It changed the texture of society in most ways. This revolution, the information revolution, is a revolution of free energy as well, but of another kind: free intellectual energy. It’s very crude today, yet our Macintosh computer takes less power than a 100-watt light bulb to run and it can save you hours a day. What will it be able to do ten or 20 years from now, or 50 years from now? This revolution will dwarf the petrochemical revolution. We’re on the forefront.

我们生活在100年前的石化革命之后。石化革命为我们提供了自由的能源-自由的机械能。它在很多方面改变了社会的面貌。这个革命，信息革命，也是一场自由能源的革命，但是是另一种形式的自由能源：自由的智力能源。虽然现在还很粗糙，但是我们的麦金塔电脑的功耗比一个100瓦的灯泡还要低，并且它可以节省你每天几个小时的时间。那么它在十年或二十年后，甚至是五十年后能做到什么?这场革命将远远超过石油化学革命。我们正处在前沿。

Computers are actually pretty simple. and the point is that people really don’t have to understand how computers work. Most people have no concept of how an automatic transmission works, yet they know how to drive a car. You don’t have to study physics to understand the laws of motion to drive a car. You don’t have to understand any of this stuff to use Macintosh—but you asked.

计算机实际上非常简单。而且重点是人们真的不需要了解计算机是如何工作的。大多数人对自动变速器的工作原理没有概念，但他们知道如何开车。你不需要学习物理学来理解运动定律就能开车。你不需要理解任何这些东西来使用麦金塔-但是你问了。

How about some concrete reasons to buy a computer today? An executive in your industry recently said, “We’ve given people computers, but we haven’t shown them what to do with them. I can balance my checkbook faster by hand than on my computer.” Why should a person buy a computer?

There are different answers for different people. In business, that question is easy to answer: You really can prepare documents much faster and at a higher quality level, and you can do many things to increase office productivity.

what about the home?

So far, that’s more of a conceptual market than a real market. The primary reasons to buy a computer for your home now are that you want to do some business work at home or you want to run educational software for yourself or your children. If you can’t justify buying a computer for one of those two reasons, the only other possible reason is that you just want to be computer literate. You know there’s something going on, you don’t exactly know what it is, so you want to learn. This will change: Computers will be essential in most homes.

那么，今天购买计算机的理由是什么呢?你们行业的一位高管最近说：“我们给人们提供了计算机，但我们没有告诉他们用它来做什么。我用手算支票的速度比用计算机快。”为什么一个人要购买计算机呢?

不同的人有不同的答案。对于企业来说，这个问题很容易回答：你真的可以更快地准备文件，并以更高的质量水平工作，你可以做很多事情来提高办公室的生产力。

那家庭呢?

到目前为止，这更多是一个概念市场而不是真正的市场。现在在家购买计算机的主要原因是你希望在家工作或者为自己或孩子运行教育软件。如果不是这两个原因，那么唯一可能的就是你想提高电脑素养。你知道有些事情正在发生，但却不知道具体是什么，所以你想学习。这种情况将会改变：计算机将成为大多数家庭中必不可少的东西。

The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone.

Specifically, what kind of breakthrough are you talking about?

I can only begin to speculate. We see that a lot in our industry: You don’t know exactly what’s going to result, but you know it’s something very big and very good.

Then for now, aren’t you asking home-computer buyers to invest $3000 in what is essentially an act of faith?

In the future, it won’t be an act of faith. The hard part of what we’re up against now is that people ask you about specifics and you can’t tell them. A hundred years ago, if somebody had asked Alexander Graham Bell, “What are you going to be able to do with a telephone?” he wouldn’t have been able to tell him the ways the telephone would affect the world. He didn’t know that people would use the telephone to call up and find out what movies were playing that night or to order some groceries or call a relative on the other side of the globe.

对大多数人来说，购买家用电脑最吸引人的原因将是将其连接到全国性的通信网络中。我们只是处于一个真正令人惊叹的突破的初级阶段-就像电话一样令人惊叹。

具体来说，你在谈论什么样的突破?

我只能开始推测。在我们的行业中，我们经常看到这种情况：你不知道会有什么结果，但你知道它会是一件非常重大且非常好的事情。

那么现在，你不是在要求家用电脑购买者投资3000美元，而这本质上是为信仰充值吗?

将来，这不再是一种信仰行为。我们现在所面临的难题是人们问你具体的事情，而你无法告诉他们。一百年前，如果有人问亚历山大·格雷厄姆·贝尔：“你能用电话做什么?”他无法告诉他电话将如何影响世界。他不知道人们会用电话打电话查询当晚有哪些电影放映，或者订购一些杂货，或者给地球另一边的亲戚打电话。

We were warned about you: Before this Interview began, someone said we were “about to be snowed by the best.”

We’re just enthusiastic about what we do.

But considering that enthusiasm, the multimillion-dollar ad campaigns and your own ability to get press coverage, how does the consumer know what’s behind the hype?

Ad campaigns are necessary for competition; IBM’s ads are everywhere. But good PR educates people; that’s all it is. You can’t con people in this business. The products speak for themselves.

Aside from some of the recurrent criticisms—that the mouse is inefficient, that the Macintosh screen is only black and white—the most serious charge is that Apple overprices its products. Do you care to answer any or all?

We’ve done studies that prove that the mouse is faster than traditional ways of moving through data or applications. Someday we may be able to build a color screen for a reasonable price. As to overpricing, the start-up of a new product makes it more expensive than it will be later. The more we can produce, the lower the price will get——

有人告诉我们要小心你：这次采访开始之前，有人说我们将会被“最大的大忽悠给忽悠了”。

我们只是对我们的事业充满激情。

但是考虑到这种热情，数百万美元的广告营销以及你自身获得媒体报道的能力，消费者怎么能了解到炒作的背后是什么呢?

广告营销是竞争所必须的;IBM的广告铺天盖地。但是好的公共宣传教育人们;就是这么点事儿。在这行里你没法骗人。产品本身说明一切。

除了经常发生的批评——比如鼠标效率太低，Mac电脑的屏幕只是黑白的——最严肃的指责是苹果定价过高。你想回应某个或所有的批评吗?

我们做过研究证明鼠标比传统的方式更高效地移动于数据和应用之间。有一天我们或许能够以合理的价格制造彩色显示器。对于定价过高，新产品的起步阶段使其比后续阶段价格更高。我们所能生产的越多，价格就会越低——

How about people who bought Lisa and Apple III, the two computers you released prior to Macintosh? You’ve left them with incompatible, out-of-date products.

At the rate things are changing, won’t Mac itself be out of date within a few years?

Before Macintosh, there were two standards: Apple II and IBM PC. Those two standards are like rivers carved in the rock bed of a canyon. It’s taken years to carve them—seven years to carve the Apple II and four years to carve the IBM. What we have done with Macintosh is that in less than a year, through the momentum of the revolutionary aspects of the product and through every ounce of marketing that we have as a company, we have been able to blast a third channel through that rock and make a third river, a third standard. In my opinion, there are only two companies that can do that today, Apple and IBM. Maybe that’s too bad, but to do it right now is just a monumental effort, and I don’t think that Apple or IBM will do that in the next three or four years. Toward the end of the Eighties, we may be seeing some new things.

And in the meantime?

The developments will be in making the products more and more portable, networking them, getting out laser printers, getting out shared data bases, getting out more communications ability, maybe the merging of the telephone and the personal computer.

关于购买了Lisa和Apple III的人们，这两款电脑是在Macintosh之前发布的，你们让他们面对不兼容和过时的产品。

以现在的变化速度，Mac本身在几年内就会过时吗?

在Macintosh出现之前，有两个标准：Apple II和IBM PC。这两个标准就像在峡谷的岩石床上刻蚀出来的河流。刻蚀它们花了多年的时间——Apple II花费了七年，而IBM则花费了四年。我们用Macintosh所做的是，在不到一年的时间里，通过产品革命性的方方面面的势头，以及我们作为一家公司所拥有的每块市场，我们成功地在岩石中爆破出第三条通道，形成了第三个标准。在我看来，今天只有两家公司可以做到这一点，苹果和IBM。也许这有点遗憾，但是现在就这样做只是一个追求名声的努力，而且我不认为苹果会在未来的三到四年里去这样做。到八十年代末，我们或许可以看到些

那在此之前呢?

发展的方向将是使产品越来越便携，网络化，推出激光打印机，推出共享数据库，提供更多的通信能力，也许还有电话和个人电脑的融合

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